Six independent AI prediction models, refreshed daily, projecting the trajectory of the energy crisis. Each model exposes its assumptions, key drivers and confidence intervals so you can stress-test procurement plans, hedging strategies and logistics contracts.
Oil prices are currently elevated due to the ongoing Strait of Hormuz restriction, disrupting 14M bbl/day of supply. Negotiations between the US and Iran are critical, with a resolution potentially easing supply constraints and lowering prices. However, Iran's insistence on control creates significant uncertainty and upside risk.
Updated 2026-05-24 · Confidence 75%
Negotiations between the US and Iran continue regarding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran insisting on retaining control. The Strait remains restricted, impacting global oil supply and driving up crude prices. The probability of a full reopening in the short term remains low due to the ongoing impasse.
Updated 2026-05-24 · Confidence 70%
The ongoing Strait of Hormuz crisis continues to severely disrupt global oil supply, leading to sustained high crude oil prices and a dramatic increase in VLCC tanker freight rates. This energy shock is propagating through the petrochemical and fertilizer sectors, with significant inflationary pressures expected across various industries and consumer goods.
Updated 2026-05-24 · Confidence 90%
The Global Supply Chain Disruption Index remains critically high due to the ongoing Strait of Hormuz restriction, significantly impacting oil supply and tanker freight rates. While some commodity prices show slight fluctuations, the core disruption from the blocked strait continues to drive the elevated score.
Updated 2026-05-24 · Confidence 95%
Shipping costs are projected to remain elevated over the next 90 days due to the ongoing Strait of Hormuz crisis. While negotiations offer a glimmer of hope, Iran's stance suggests a prolonged disruption. Fuel costs, driven by crude oil prices, and significantly increased tanker freight rates will be the primary cost drivers.
Updated 2026-05-24 · Confidence 75%
The ongoing Strait of Hormuz restriction continues to severely impact global energy supply, driving up crude oil prices and freight rates. While some commodity prices show slight fluctuations, the overall market remains highly volatile with significant supply disruptions. Negotiations for a peace deal are ongoing but without immediate resolution, maintaining high vulnerability across energy-intensive sectors.
Updated 2026-05-24 · Confidence 85%