Supply Chain Disruption Index
Updated 2026-07-08 · Confidence 95% · Valid until 2026-07-09
Executive summary
The Global Supply Chain Disruption Index has reached a critical level of 99, driven by the complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz and significant increases in VLCC tanker freight rates. Geopolitical tensions remain extremely high, contributing to severe market instability and supply bottlenecks.
Today's disruption score
99/100 · Alert level: critical · Trend: stable · Change vs yesterday: 0.
Index components
- price volatility: [object Object]
- geopolitical risk: [object Object]
- inventory pressure: [object Object]
- maritime disruption: [object Object]
- route capacity stress: [object Object]
Trajectory
- Direction: stable
- 7-day forecast: 99
- 14-day forecast: 99
- 30-day forecast: 99
- Catalyst to watch: Reopening of the Strait of Hormuz or de-escalation of geopolitical tensions in the region.
Historical comparison
- vs last week: 0
- vs pre-crisis: 99
- vs crisis start: 0
- Historical percentile: 99
Methodology
Composite index aggregating maritime shipping disruption, commodity price volatility, geopolitical risk premium, alternative route capacity utilization, and inventory depletion rates.
Analyst note
The supply chain remains in a critical state due to the sustained closure of the Strait of Hormuz and ongoing geopolitical instability. While the score is stable, it reflects a maximum disruption level, with no immediate signs of improvement.
Frequently asked questions
- What is the Global Supply Chain Disruption Index?
- A composite score from 0-100 measuring disruption in global energy supply chains. It combines five sub-indices: maritime disruption, price volatility, geopolitical risk, route capacity stress, and inventory pressure.
- Today's disruption score is 99 — what does that mean?
- A score of 99 falls in the critical (75-100) zone.
- How is the disruption index calculated?
- The index combines 5 weighted components: Maritime Disruption, Price Volatility, Geopolitical Risk, Route Capacity Stress, and Inventory Pressure.
- Is this index rising or falling?
- The index is currently stable. Compared to last week: 0 points.
- What is a high disruption index score?
- Scores above 75 are critical and historically correlate with major supply chain failures. The pre-crisis baseline was approximately 15-20.
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